Difference between revisions of "AIP AQ Scenario B: Model - Data Synthesis"

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For scientific assessment and analysis of management strategies, this integration can be done using historical datasets. For air quality forecasting to inform the public and manage individual air pollution episodes or events, it is necessary to perform this integration in near real time.
 
For scientific assessment and analysis of management strategies, this integration can be done using historical datasets. For air quality forecasting to inform the public and manage individual air pollution episodes or events, it is necessary to perform this integration in near real time.
  
This air quality use scenario envisions a cyberinfrastructure for air quality information that facilitates access, integration, and use of the information described above for purposes of air quality assessment and forecasting.  This scenario is consistent with project HE-07-03: Integrated Atmospheric Pollution Monitoring, Modelling, and Forecasting described in the [http://earthobservations.org/documents/wp0709_v4.pdf  GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan].
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This air quality use scenario envisions a cyberinfrastructure for air quality information that facilitates access, integration, and use of the information described above for purposes of air quality assessment and forecasting.  This scenario is consistent with project HE-07-03: Integrated Atmospheric Pollution Monitoring, Modelling, and Forecasting described in the [http://earthobservations.org/documents/wp0709_v4.pdf  GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan]. This scenario is also consistent with the efforts of the [http://www.scgcorp.com/uic2007/docs/Hilsenrath-CEOS%20Virtual%20Constellation.pdf CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation]. 
  
 
  From the GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan:
 
  From the GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan:
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  forecasting system including atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic observations, modelling and  
 
  forecasting system including atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic observations, modelling and  
 
  chemical data assimilation for global and local air quality.  
 
  chemical data assimilation for global and local air quality.  
  * Organise appropriate symposia in 2007.  
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  * Organise appropriate symposia in 2007.
  
 
====<font color="#000080">''Identify the specific decisions to be made.''</font>====
 
====<font color="#000080">''Identify the specific decisions to be made.''</font>====
 
A particular emphasis is placed on:  
 
A particular emphasis is placed on:  
 
* the near real time analysis of large air pollution events (such as those associated with large fires, dust storms, and regional air pollution episodes)
 
* the near real time analysis of large air pollution events (such as those associated with large fires, dust storms, and regional air pollution episodes)
* the assimilation of satellite observations data to improve numerical forecast models and provide forecasts where ground-based monitors do not exist
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* the assimilation of satellite observations to improve numerical forecast models and provide forecasts where ground-based monitors do not exist
 
* the assessment of the international or intercontinental transport of air pollution
 
* the assessment of the international or intercontinental transport of air pollution
* the provision of relevant information to the health community and the general public.
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* the provision of relevant information to the health community and the general public.
  
 
====<font color="#000080">''Provide references for additional information.''</font><br>====
 
====<font color="#000080">''Provide references for additional information.''</font><br>====
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====<font color="#000080">''Identify the actors in the scenario. Actors are any persons involved in the scenario.''</font>====
 
====<font color="#000080">''Identify the actors in the scenario. Actors are any persons involved in the scenario.''</font>====
  
The actors in the smoke scenario include data/information providers, data processors and specialists to deliver tailored information products to the public, AQ managers and scientists. A key set of actors are the actual decision makers ...who interact with the ??....  (this needs work [[User:Rhusar|Rhusar]])
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The actors involved in the scenario come from a wide variety of types of institutions but may be classified into several different roles:
  
* National Environmental agency
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* '''Earth Observations Providers''' - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international cooperative fora (e.g. WMO, CEOS, ...)
* National Meteorological agency
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* National Health agency (if separate from National Environmental agency)
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* '''Other Related Information Providers''' - including National, State/Provincial, Local Commerce/Transportation/Energy/Land Use/Health Authorities; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
* National Land Management agency
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* National Space agency
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* '''Air Quality Modelers, Forecasters, and Analysts''' - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international scientific cooperative fora (e.g., IGAC, ...)
* Local Environmental agencies
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* Local emergency personnel
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* '''Information Management Specialists''' - including including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
* Consulting companies
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* GEOSS Portal integrator? (took from Energy scenario)
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* '''Air Quality Management Decision-Makers''' - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies and Multi-lateral Cooperative Fora (such as LRTAP Convention, EANET, Male Declaration, CAI-Asia, Arctic Council, ...); Industry
* Local, Regional and National media (print, online, broadcast)
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* Public
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* '''Other Consumers of Air Quality Information''' - including the general public; National, State/Provincial, and Local Health and Emergency Response Authorities; Academic and Independent Research Institutes (including health and environmental impacts research); Mass Media (including television, newspapers, radio, internet, ...)
  
 
====<font color="#000080">''List, at a summary level, the specific information assumed to be available before the scenario begins. ''</font>====
 
====<font color="#000080">''List, at a summary level, the specific information assumed to be available before the scenario begins. ''</font>====
  
 
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Information available before scenario begins:
Information available before scenario begins (via GEOSS portals)
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* Meteorological data  
* Meteorological data
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** Observations from ground-based networks, satellites, sondes
** Observed and forecasted surface meteorological data (such as temperature, surface wind speed and direction, humidity)
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** Forecasts from numerical models at the global and regional scales
** Observed and forecasted aloft large-scale (1000 km or more) atmospheric parameters (such as 850 and 500 millibar heights, temperature, wind speed, dew point)
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* Geographical data (land use, demographics, emissions-related activity, ...)
** HYSPLIT trajectories (NAM/NDAS Models (40km) - forward trajectories can be used to estimate the transport direction and potential time the smoke or dust might enter a particular forecast region
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* Atmopsheric Composition (Air Quality) Observations
* Geographical data  
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** Surface Monitoring Networks
** land use for knowing affected and forecast areas
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** Satellite Observations
** demographic data for understanding impacted population: different age groups have different sensitivities to poor AQ, for example
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** Sondes
** fuel type - important input for smoke models [http://www.blueskyrains.org/ BlueSky RAINS]
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** Ground-based remote sensors
* Air Quality information
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** Aircraft Measurements
** Particle pollution ground observations (for [http://www.airnow.gov/ United States] and [http://www.ns.ec.gc.ca/airquality/query/ Canada], EEA?)  
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* Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models (at regional to global scales)
** Air quality forecasts for particle pollution areas (for United States, [http://www.airnow.gov/ AIRNow], [http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/textforecast_e.html/ Canada], Europe – EEA)
 
** Established air quality programs which issue public alerts
 
* Air Quality Numerical Forecast Models?
 
** [http://www.arl.noaa.gov/smoke/forecast.html NOAA Smoke Forecast Tool]
 
** [http://www.blueskyrains.org/ BlueSky RAINS]
 
** private numerical models ([http://www.baronams.com/projects/SECMEP/index.html Baron Advanced Meteorological Systems])
 
* Satellite data
 
** graphical satellite data, (true color and/or aerosol optical depth (AOD) imagery)  MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (MODIS instrument on board the Terra or Aqua satellite)
 
** GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product (GASP). Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite East (GOES-12)  NOAA Satellite and Information Service
 
** NOAA fire locations - [http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/FIRE/hms.html Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke Product]
 
** [http://www.nifc.gov/ National Interagency Fire Center] with real-time and historical fire data and statistics
 
** [http://fire.boi.noaa.gov/ National Weather Service Fire Weather]
 
** NOAA’s Air Resources Laboratory – [http://www.arl.noaa.gov/smoke/ Wildfire/Forest Fire Smoke Forecasting ]
 
** Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere ([http://www.eos.ucar.edu/mopitt/ MOPITT]) sensor on NASA's Terra satellite (22-km horizontal resolution) measurements in the lower part of the atmosphere - global
 
* Specific processing
 
** collection / QC of ambient air quality data by an air quality data management system
 
** local or regional air quality forecast generated by numerical model (requiring air quality and meteorological data) or human forecaster
 
** integrating air quality data, forecasts with available satellite data products
 
** develop context and understanding of air quality conditions and forecasts for the event
 
** develop and issue communication piece to decision-makers and/or public
 
** distribute data/information through established channels
 
* GUI development and GEOSS portal integration
 
** Exploit Web service description (GEOSS portal integrator)
 
** Build GUI (GEOSS portal integrator)  
 
** map / image production for release to media, public
 
** distribute data/information/graphics
 
** ?
 
  
 
====<font color="#000080">''List, at a summary level, the specific processing and collaboration functionality assumed needed in the scenario.''</font>====
 
====<font color="#000080">''List, at a summary level, the specific processing and collaboration functionality assumed needed in the scenario.''</font>====
* Convenient functionality to register smoke-relevant components in the GEOSS Registry 
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* Convenient portals for identifying, accessing, visualizing, and processing observational and modeling data by analysts in near real time and for historical analysis
* GEOSS-compatible smoke portal used and maintained (?) by the Smoke Community of Practice 
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** Data sharing and integration functionality including (1) registry/catalog for finding resources (2) standard-based access to spatio-temporal data and metadata, workflow software for integrating Service Components
* Identification and accessing the relevant monitoring data (surface, upper air and satellite) using the publish-find-bind SOA protocol 
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* Integration of multiple observational data sets to create rich 4-dimensional descriptions of the atmosphere to improve understanding of atmospheric processes
* Data sharing and integration functionality including (1) registry/catalog for finding resources (2) standard-based access to spatio-temporal data and metadata, workflow software for integrating Service Components
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* Comparison of observational data to numerical model estimates to improve numerical model descriptions of historical conditions (events or long-term trends)
* Harvesting the data sources from "other" agencies/organizations, Public contributions of first-hand reports, images, videos...
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* Real-time assimilation of observational data into numerical models to improve numerical forecasts
* A workspace to support the activities of the '''Smoke Community of Practice''', including communal resources on the specific smoke event (and smoke in general?), are assembled ... other Decision Support System functionality... ??
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* Effective mechanisms for distributing (in near real time) maps/images, descriptive information, and processed data health, emergency response, and air quality management authorities; to mass media; other research and assessment communities (e.g., health); and the general public.
* Ability to produce near-real-time reports that characterize the smoke event for the Public, AQ managers and Scientists.
 
  
 
===Scenario Events===
 
===Scenario Events===

Latest revision as of 12:32, February 1, 2008

<Back to AQ Pilot Scenario Workspace

Unified Scenario

This is an attempt to broaden the scope of the AQ scenario beyond fire events. It is motivated by a concern that a focus on fire events will not lead to developments that are applicable to more generalized issues with respect to air quality assessment and forecasting.

Summary

Provide a summary of the scenario and the community that the scenario supports.

Air pollution is a global problem that causes premature mortality and morbidity, damages crops and ecosystems, and contributes to climate change. Furthermore, air pollution does not respect jurisdictional boundaries and is affected by sources and processes over local, regional, intercontinental, and global scales. In the United States alone, poor air quality is estimated to cause tens of thousands of deaths and cost society more than $100 billion annually. Globally, air pollution contributes to the deaths of more than 800 thousand people per year, most in the developing world. Recent scientific and technical advancements, including new observing and information technologies and insights into atmospheric processes, have created opportunities to better assess and manage air pollution and its impacts. Improved information about air quality enables policy-makers and environmental managers to develop more effective policies and plans to improve public health and well being, protect critical ecosystems, and maintain a vital economy. Enhanced air quality forecasts allow communities and individuals, especially those suffering from asthma, allergic diseases, cardiovascular disease, or pulmonary disease, to more effectively limit exposure and the adverse effects of poor air quality.

To better understand, forecast, and manage air pollution, there is a need to bring together information about

  • a variety of atmospheric constituents from different observational platforms (surface monitoring networks, satellites, sondes, ground-based remote sensors, aircraft, ...)
  • nonlinear chemical and physical atmospheric processes from meteorological and chemical transport models
  • emissions and emissions-generating activities
  • population demographics, exposure-related behavior, and health impacts

For scientific assessment and analysis of management strategies, this integration can be done using historical datasets. For air quality forecasting to inform the public and manage individual air pollution episodes or events, it is necessary to perform this integration in near real time.

This air quality use scenario envisions a cyberinfrastructure for air quality information that facilitates access, integration, and use of the information described above for purposes of air quality assessment and forecasting. This scenario is consistent with project HE-07-03: Integrated Atmospheric Pollution Monitoring, Modelling, and Forecasting described in the GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan. This scenario is also consistent with the efforts of the CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation.

From the GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan:
HE-07-03: Integrated Atmospheric Pollution Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting 
* Advocate a stable and improved in-situ and space-based observing system of global air 
quality in line with the Integrated Global Atmospheric Composition Observations (IGACO) 
recommendations. 
* Support WMO efforts related to increased spatial and temporal resolution. As a priority,
evaluate and recommend strategies for an integrated sampling frame for air pollution. 
* Coordinate and facilitate appropriate activities and consortia that complement UNECE CLRTAP
HTAP activities and pursue implementation of projects integrating Earth observation data on
long range transport with other data, such as health and socio-economic data, to improve 
decision making. 
* Support the development of international systems for both sand and dust storm warning and
biomass burning monitoring. 
* Coordinate the construction of a high spatial and temporal resolution monitoring and 
forecasting system including atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic observations, modelling and 
chemical data assimilation for global and local air quality. 
* Organise appropriate symposia in 2007.

Identify the specific decisions to be made.

A particular emphasis is placed on:

  • the near real time analysis of large air pollution events (such as those associated with large fires, dust storms, and regional air pollution episodes)
  • the assimilation of satellite observations to improve numerical forecast models and provide forecasts where ground-based monitors do not exist
  • the assessment of the international or intercontinental transport of air pollution
  • the provision of relevant information to the health community and the general public.

Provide references for additional information.

Context and pre-conditions

Identify the actors in the scenario. Actors are any persons involved in the scenario.

The actors involved in the scenario come from a wide variety of types of institutions but may be classified into several different roles:

  • Earth Observations Providers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international cooperative fora (e.g. WMO, CEOS, ...)
  • Other Related Information Providers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Commerce/Transportation/Energy/Land Use/Health Authorities; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
  • Air Quality Modelers, Forecasters, and Analysts - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international scientific cooperative fora (e.g., IGAC, ...)
  • Information Management Specialists - including including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
  • Air Quality Management Decision-Makers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies and Multi-lateral Cooperative Fora (such as LRTAP Convention, EANET, Male Declaration, CAI-Asia, Arctic Council, ...); Industry
  • Other Consumers of Air Quality Information - including the general public; National, State/Provincial, and Local Health and Emergency Response Authorities; Academic and Independent Research Institutes (including health and environmental impacts research); Mass Media (including television, newspapers, radio, internet, ...)

List, at a summary level, the specific information assumed to be available before the scenario begins.

Information available before scenario begins:

  • Meteorological data
    • Observations from ground-based networks, satellites, sondes
    • Forecasts from numerical models at the global and regional scales
  • Geographical data (land use, demographics, emissions-related activity, ...)
  • Atmopsheric Composition (Air Quality) Observations
    • Surface Monitoring Networks
    • Satellite Observations
    • Sondes
    • Ground-based remote sensors
    • Aircraft Measurements
  • Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models (at regional to global scales)

List, at a summary level, the specific processing and collaboration functionality assumed needed in the scenario.

  • Convenient portals for identifying, accessing, visualizing, and processing observational and modeling data by analysts in near real time and for historical analysis
    • Data sharing and integration functionality including (1) registry/catalog for finding resources (2) standard-based access to spatio-temporal data and metadata, workflow software for integrating Service Components
  • Integration of multiple observational data sets to create rich 4-dimensional descriptions of the atmosphere to improve understanding of atmospheric processes
  • Comparison of observational data to numerical model estimates to improve numerical model descriptions of historical conditions (events or long-term trends)
  • Real-time assimilation of observational data into numerical models to improve numerical forecasts
  • Effective mechanisms for distributing (in near real time) maps/images, descriptive information, and processed data health, emergency response, and air quality management authorities; to mass media; other research and assessment communities (e.g., health); and the general public.

Scenario Events

Elaborate the steps that result in the creation of decision support products developed in collaboration by the actors.

Use the table to identify the main sequence of events in the scenario, including alternative branch steps.

  • Develop connections between existing repositories of air quality related information and tools for integrated analysis of observational data and comparison to models. E.g. HTAP Data Network Proposal
  • Develop tools for analysis and assimilation of observational data into atmospheric models and other decision support systems in near real time for producing air quality forecasts. i.e. AIRNow, IDEA
  • Develop a virtual observatory for collaborative exploration of large events and ...



  1. Designated and voluntary observers will use a 'virtual observatory' to monitor the current aerosol 'weather' situation over their region of interest (e.g. North America, Central America, Europe, Asia? - do we need to spell out regions? ).
  2. The observers scan the spatial, temporal aerosol pattern on the real-time satellite images, surface monitors, as well as monitoring the electronic media and private citizen reports.
  3. Once an ‘interesting’ smoke event appears, the observers explore the pattern of other peripheral data sources such as weather pattern, trajectories and other monitors to ascertain the emergence of a smoke event.
  4. Throughout the event’s emergence, the observers share their observations and views on a shared virtual workspace, including the the deliberations whether to issue alert(s).
  5. Using standardized Common Notification Protocol), alert(s) are issued to different groups (Public, Regulatory, Science - see) that may need to act or who are interested in observing/participating in smoke monitoring or response action action.
  6. In response to the alert, more intense monitoring and just-in-time analysis is initiated. This includes additional sampling, high resolution targeted smoke source/dispersion modeling, harvesting of other real-time data resources etc.
  7. As the smoke event evolves, a virtual workgroup of analysts summarizes the smoke situation, including sources, transport, aerosol pattern, forecast and impact in a manner suitable for multiple user communities, Public, Regulatory and Science.
  8. Based on those reports and other input, during the smoke event, a multiplicity of decisions and actions are executed by Public, Regulatory and Scientific decision makers.
  9. Following the smoke event, the event is evaluated for its impact, consequences and possibly for detailed retrospective analysis.

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