Environmental Decision Making

Workshop Objectives

An important end use for Earth observational data is to support better informed decisions and policies in the commercial and public sectors. Observations (both real-time and historical) play an important role in reducing the uncertainty inherent in environmental-related decisions. Scientific models provide further value in predicting future states and scenarios, such as those associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions.

This Wednesday afternoon forum elicits contributions in topics such as:

• the economic value of Earth science data in decision settings;
• data requirements for environmental decisions, policies, and IPCC;
• decision making under deep environmental uncertainty;
• collaborative environments for assessing scenarios and consequences of decisions involving multiple stakeholders;
• case studies in environmental decision-making;
• integrated physical-economic models;
• perceptions of long-term climatic uncertainty;
• tools, services, models, and associated standards for data-driven decision support.

Ideas discussed in this Forum can run over into the open meeting sessions on Thursday. If you would like to give a presentation, please enter your name and title of talk (or contact Rob.Raskin@jpl.nasa.gov).

Tentative schedule

• 1:00-1:30pm Lawrence Friedl, NASA Program Manager "Data Needs for Decision Making"
• 1:30-2:00pm Molly Macauley, Resources for the Future
• 2:00-2:30pm Rob Lempert, Senior Scientist, RAND Corp, "Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty"
• 2:30-3:00pm Pat Gober, ASU Decision Center for a Desert City, "Tools for Decision Making Under Uncertainty"
• BREAK
• 3:30-4:00pm Menas Kafatos, Chapman U., "Business and Economic Opportunities Emerging from Climate Change"
• 4:00-4:15pm Noah Molotch, UCLA/JPL, "Estimation of Snow Water Equivalent Data for Water Resource Planning"
• 4:15-4:30pm Tyler Stevens, GCMD, "CEOS Climate Diagnostics Portal"
• 4:30-4:45pm Stephanie Granger, JPL, "Western Regional Applications Center for Water Supply and Management"
• 4:45-5:00pm Bill Sprigg, U. Arizona, "Data Management Challenges for a Global Sand and Dust Storm Management System"
• 5:00-5:15pm Rob Raskin, JPL, "Spatial Decision Support Consortium"
• 5:15-5:30pm Open Discussion, Formation of ESIP Economics and Decisions Cluster, Future Activities

Abstracts of talks

Menas Kaftos, Chapman U.

Business and Economic Opportunities Emergi

ng From Climate Change

Rob Lempert, Rand Corp.

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Climate change presents public and private sector decision makers with a fundamental quandary: how to address a potentially serious, long-term, and deeply uncertain threat. By waiting until new science and unfolding events eliminate much of the uncertainty, it may be too late for decision makers to act effectively. If they act without understanding the extent and contours of the problem, they risk making serious miscalculations. Our objectives at Rand are to:

• conduct basic research needed to improve computer-based tools that enable decision makers to make better choices when confronted with deep uncertainty about the future;
• examine the best means to represent uncertain scientific information for decision makers so they can act on it more effectively, whether as individuals or groups; and
• strengthen the scientific foundations of robust decision making (RDM), a promising new approach to computer-assisted support for decision makers facing deep uncertainty. When the future is hard to predict with confidence, RDM helps decision makers identify strategies that perform well over a range of plausible futures.

Dr. Lempert is a Senior Physical Scientist at RAND and Professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. He is an expert in science and technology policy, with a special focus on climate change, energy, and the environment. He was a contributor to the IPCC, which was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2007 along with Vice President Al Gore. An internationally-known scholar in the field of decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty, he studies how policy-makers can best use uncertain climate forecasts to support important decisions. This project is helping California water agencies include climate impacts in their long-term water management plans and is assessing responses to potential abrupt climate change. He is co-leading a project comparing the effectiveness of carbon taxes and cap and trade system in reaching long-term climate goals and has recently completed a study on the Federal role in providing terrorism insurance. Dr. Lempert is an author of the book Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy Analysis.

Rob Raskin, JPL

The Spatial Decision Support Consortium

Bill Sprigg, U. of Arizona

DATA MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES FOR A GLOBAL SAND AND DUST STORM WARNING SYSTEM

Airborne dust affects social, economic and environmental systems and influences weather and climate. The serious consequences have encouraged more than 40 nations to recommend action by the World Meteorological Organization to develop a better understanding of dust storms, the mechanisms for dust entrainment and dispersion in the atmosphere, and a world-wide system to detect, monitor and predict them. An Implementation Plan for an International Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System is under review. The Plan calls for research, observations, and advisories to support national weather services and other potential users worldwide. A federated system of regional centres form the core of the new SDS-WAS, providing several nodes for state of the science information on current conditions for sand and dust storms around the globe. A proposal for a Pan-American Centre is under construction, needing a plan for data assembly and distribution.

Tyler Stevens, GCMD

CEOS Climate Diagnostics: Offering Climate Visualizations for Environmental Decision Making.

The climate visualizations are targeted to address the Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) related to: Disasters, Health, Energy, Climate, Water, Weather, Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Biodiversity. Every description of a climate visualization in the directory is tagged with one or more of the potentially significant Societal Benefit Areas. The visualizations are created from scientific data by a multitude of providers. The site is designed to offer visualizations that could be readily interpreted by decision makers. If a better understanding of the significance of the science can be achieved, the societal benefits of scientific research would be enhanced by providing these visualizations for long-term diagnostic analyses. The visualizations, also known as "Climate Diagnostics", are expected to be supportive and useful in decision-making processes. They have been based on the careful analysis of significant variables. Anticipating future consequences related to climate in the nine Societal Benefit Areas could be pivotal to our survival.

Resources of Interest

NOAA Economics Web Site

IPCC