HTAP Report Chap. 6 - Jan 07 Outline

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Draft version of HTAP Chapter 6, December 2006 Outline.

6.1 Introduction

Quantitative assessment of intercontinental transport of pollution in terms of source-receptor relationships requires chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by best estimates of emissions. These CTMs need to be constrained and evaluated by atmospheric observations, and in turn provide information on what kind of observations are most needed for model testing. This exchange of information between observations and models defines an integrated observing system.

6.2 Observing system concept

Describe Bayesian optimization of information from emissions, CTMs, and observations as an observing system to improve understanding of intercontinental transport and quantify source-receptor relationships. Point out that separation of model and observational approaches is artificial – one should think rather of an interactive partnership. Show optimization flow chart starting from a priori knowledge of emissions and transport to drive a CTM (forward model), followed by comparison to available observations and use of this comparison to iteratively improve the model and the observation network; and finishing with inference of top-down information to improve the a priori knowledge.

6.3 Past applications of observing system concept

Review continental outflow and intercontinental transport analyses from TRACE-P, ICARTT, INTEX-B missions (anything else?). Critical role of aircraft as integrator of information for transport on intercontinental scales. Use of models as transfer functions between different observation types.

6.4 Future applications

Integration of satellites, aircraft, and models during the POLARCAT mission to the Arctic in 2008. Exploitation of data from satellites already in space (Terra, Aqua, Aura, GOME, Envisat, GOME-2) for data assimilation and inverse modeling.

6.5 Development needs

Satellites in sentinel orbit: GEO, L-1. Continuous in situ monitoring using UAVs, background sites. Improved data assimilation capabilities, model adjoints.

6.6 Conclusions

Integration between models and observations is critical to advancing understanding of intercontinental transport of pollution. Importance of taking the observing system perspective. Start by posing the specific questions to answer and design observing system around it. Need for satellites in sentinel orbit, UAVs, advanced inverse modeling tools.