Difference between revisions of "AIP AQ Unified Scenario"
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* Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models (at regional to global scales) | * Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models (at regional to global scales) | ||
− | ====Processing and Collaboration Functionality | + | ====Processing and Collaboration Functionality==== |
* Facilities to register all the components/services needed for the execution of the scenario. | * Facilities to register all the components/services needed for the execution of the scenario. | ||
* Convenient portals for finding, accessing, visualizing, and processing observational and modeling data by analysts in near real time and for historical analysis | * Convenient portals for finding, accessing, visualizing, and processing observational and modeling data by analysts in near real time and for historical analysis |
Revision as of 13:09, February 2, 2008
<Back to AQ Pilot Scenario Workspace
Unified Scenario
This Air Quality Scenario integrates the various themes we have considered. It emphasizes the common goals and needs of the various themes, while specifying 4 goals:
- Real-time event analysis
- Assimilation of observations for air-quality forecasting
- Assessment of intercontinental pollutant transport
- Informing the public and the health sector about air quality in real-time or near-real-time
Summary
Air pollution is a global problem that causes premature mortality and morbidity, damages crops and ecosystems, and contributes to climate change. Furthermore, air pollution does not respect jurisdictional boundaries and is affected by sources and processes over local, regional, intercontinental, and global scales. In the United States alone, poor air quality is estimated to cause tens of thousands of deaths and cost society more than $100 billion annually. Globally, air pollution contributes to the deaths of more than 800 thousand people per year, most in the developing world. Recent scientific and technical advancements, including new observing and information technologies and insights into atmospheric processes, have created opportunities to better assess and manage air pollution and its impacts. Improved information about air quality enables policy-makers and environmental managers to develop more effective policies and plans to improve public health and well being, protect critical ecosystems, and maintain a vital economy. Enhanced air quality forecasts allow communities and individuals, especially those suffering from asthma, allergic diseases, cardiovascular disease, or pulmonary disease, to more effectively limit exposure and the adverse effects of poor air quality.
To better understand, forecast, and manage air pollution, there is a need to bring together information about
- a variety of atmospheric constituents from different observational platforms (surface monitoring networks, satellites, sondes, ground-based remote sensors, aircraft, ...)
- nonlinear chemical and physical atmospheric processes from meteorological and chemical transport models
- emissions and emissions-generating activities
- population demographics, exposure-related behavior, and health impacts
For scientific assessment and analysis of management strategies, this integration can be done using historical datasets. For air quality forecasting to inform the public and manage individual air pollution episodes or events, it is necessary to perform this integration in near real time.
This air quality use scenario envisions a cyberinfrastructure for air quality information that facilitates access, integration, and use of the information described above for purposes of air quality assessment and forecasting. A particular emphasis is placed on:
- the near real time analysis of large air pollution events (such as those associated with large fires, dust storms, and regional air pollution episodes)
- the assimilation of satellite observations to improve numerical forecast models and provide forecasts where ground-based monitors do not exist
- the assessment of the international or intercontinental transport of air pollution
- the provision of relevant information to the health community and the general public.
This scenario is consistent with project HE-07-03: Integrated Atmospheric Pollution Monitoring, Modelling, and Forecasting in the GEO 2007-2009 Work Plan, which includes efforts to:
- Advocate a stable and improved in-situ and space-based observing system of global air quality in line with the Integrated Global Atmospheric Composition Observations (IGACO) recommendations.
- Support WMO efforts related to increased spatial and temporal resolution. As a priority, evaluate and recommend strategies for an integrated sampling frame for air pollution.
- Coordinate and facilitate appropriate activities and consortia that complement UNECE CLRTAP HTAP activities and pursue implementation of projects integrating Earth observation data on long range transport with other data, such as health and socio-economic data, to improve decision making.
- Support the development of international systems for both sand and dust storm warning and biomass burning monitoring.
- Coordinate the construction of a high spatial and temporal resolution monitoring and forecasting system including atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic observations, modelling and chemical data assimilation for global and local air quality.
- Organise appropriate symposia in 2007.
This scenario is also consistent with the efforts of the CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation; the development of the GMES Atmospheric Service, GEMS, and its planned extensions; the evolution of AIRNow, IDEA, 3D-AQS, and Datafed; and other ongoing efforts.
Context and pre-conditions
Actors
The actors involved in the scenario come from a wide variety of types of institutions but may be classified into several different roles:
- Earth Observations Providers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international cooperative fora (e.g. WMO, CEOS, EEA, ...)
- Other Related Information Providers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Commerce/Transportation/Energy/Land Use/Health Authorities; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
- Air Quality Modelers, Forecasters, and Analysts - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes; and international scientific cooperative fora or projects (e.g., IGAC, GEMS (and MACS), ECMWF, EMEP, ...)
- Information Management Specialists - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies; National Meteorological Agencies; National Space Agencies; National Land Management Agencies; Industry; Consultants; Academic and Other Research Institutes
- Air Quality Management Decision-Makers - including National, State/Provincial, Local Environmental Management Agencies and Multi-lateral Cooperative Fora (such as LRTAP Convention, EANET, Male Declaration, CAI-Asia, Arctic Council, ...); Industry
- Other Consumers of Air Quality Information - including the general public; National, State/Provincial, and Local Health and Emergency Response Authorities; Academic and Independent Research Institutes (including health and environmental impacts research); Mass Media (including television, newspapers, radio, internet, ...)
Starting Information
Information available before scenario begins:
- Meteorological data
- Observations from ground-based networks, satellites, sondes
- Forecasts from numerical models at the global and regional scales
- Geographical data (land use, demographics, emissions-related activity, ...)
- Atmopsheric Composition (Air Quality) Observations
- Surface Monitoring Networks
- Satellite Observations
- Sondes
- Ground-based remote sensors
- Aircraft Measurements
- Numerical Air Quality Chemical Transport Models (at regional to global scales)
Processing and Collaboration Functionality
- Facilities to register all the components/services needed for the execution of the scenario.
- Convenient portals for finding, accessing, visualizing, and processing observational and modeling data by analysts in near real time and for historical analysis
- Data sharing and integration functionality including (1) registry/catalog for finding resources (2) standard-based access to spatio-temporal data and metadata, workflow software for integrating Service Components
- Integration of multiple observational data sets to create rich 4-dimensional descriptions of the atmosphere to improve understanding of atmospheric processes
- Comparison of observational data to numerical model estimates to improve numerical model descriptions of historical conditions (events or long-term trends)
- Real-time assimilation of observational data into numerical models to improve numerical forecasts
- A workspace to support the activities of the Air Quality Community of Practice participating in the Scenario
- Effective mechanisms for distributing (in near real time) maps/images, descriptive information, and processed data health, emergency response, and air quality management authorities; to mass media; other research and assessment communities (e.g., health); and the general public.
Scenario Events
- Real Time Event Analysis (e.g. FASTNET)
- Designated and voluntary observers monitor the aerosol 'weather' situation in a region, using satellites, surface monitoring, and other data. When an ‘interesting’ smoke or dust event occurs, they use back-trajectories, etc. to assign the source of the dust / smoke. Throughout the event, the observers share observations and views on a shared virtual workspace, including deliberations on whether to issue alert(s).
- Using standardized Common Notification Protocol), alert(s) are issued to different groups (Public, Regulatory, Health, Science) that may need to act or who are interested in observing/participating in air quality monitoring or response action.
- In response to the alert, more intense monitoring and just-in-time analysis is initiated. This could include additional sampling, high resolution targeted modeling, smoke source/dispersion modeling if appropriate, harvesting of other real-time data resources etc.
- As the event evolves, a virtual workgroup summarizes the smoke situation, including sources, transport, plume characterization, forecast, and air quality impact in manners suitable for multiple user communities, e.g., public, health, regulatory and science.
- Based on those reports and other input, during the smoke event, a multiplicity of decisions and actions are executed by public, regulatory and scientific decision makers.
- Assimilation of Observations for Air Quality Forecasting (e.g. GEMS)
- Assessment of International and Intercontinental Transport of Air Pollution (e.g. Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Data Network)