Difference between revisions of "NASA ROSES08: Regulatory AQ Applications Proposal- Technical Approach"

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The above requirements place high demand on the resources and skills of the analysts at the State, Region and Federal level. Many State and Regional AQ management offices lack the means for detecting, flagging and documenting exceptional events. Furthermore, the EE Rule is intentionally vague on the types of evidence and analyzes. As a consequence, the submissions are highly variable; some are very detailed and technical while others are brief and descriptive, which makes evaluation difficult and uneven.  
 
The above requirements place high demand on the resources and skills of the analysts at the State, Region and Federal level. Many State and Regional AQ management offices lack the means for detecting, flagging and documenting exceptional events. Furthermore, the EE Rule is intentionally vague on the types of evidence and analyzes. As a consequence, the submissions are highly variable; some are very detailed and technical while others are brief and descriptive, which makes evaluation difficult and uneven.  
  
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Fortunately, there are now outstanding opportunities to develop executable, credible and reasonably simple methods for PM2.5 Exceptional Event analysis. In the past, the EPA evaluation of the State-provided data did not benefit from tools and sources of information which are now available.
  
  
In the past, the EPA evaluation of the State-provided data did not benefit from tools and sources of information which are now available.
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The purpose of the Excepitonal Event DSS (EE DSS) for the preparation of technical documantation and supporting information for exceptional event data claims. The EE flags and the flag justification reports are prepared by the individual States, the primary users of the DSS are the States. However, since the EE flag claims are evaluated by Regional and Federal EPA offices, they also represent major user groups.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Fortunately, there are now outstanding opportunities to develop executable, credible and reasonably simple methods for PM2.5 Exceptional Event analysis.
 
 
 
 
 
- new EE Rule, no methods
 
- flags submitted so far were ad hoc
 
- opportunities
 
 
 
 
 
The purpose of the Excepitonal Event DSS template is to provide an illustrative example and discussion of the kinds of technical documentation and supporting information that should be used in the analysis and concurrence/non-concurrence of exceptional event data claim submittals
 
  
 
=== A: Event Description ===
 
=== A: Event Description ===

Revision as of 16:34, July 5, 2008

Air Quality Cluster > Applying NASA Observations, Models and IT for Air Quality Main Page > Proposal | NASA ROSES Solicitation | Context | Resources | Schedule | Forum | Participating Groups

Summary

A description of the key, central objectives of the proposal in terms understandable to a nonspecialist;

A concise statement of the methods/techniques proposed to accomplish the stated research objectives; and

  • Fan-in/Fan-out Architecture
  • Service Oriented Architecture
  • Application to primary and reused in secondary DSS's


A statement of the perceived significance of the proposed work to the objectives of the solicitation and to NASA interests and programs in general.

  • Better air quality management decisions
  • Wider distribution of NASA products
  • Demonstration of GEOSS concept

Exceptional Event DSS

EPA determines compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) based upon ambient air quality measurements using Federal Reference Method (FRM) monitors. Based on the 2006 ammendment of the PM2.5 NAAQS, the Exceptional Event Rule provides for the exclusion of data strongly influenced by impacts from "exceptional events," such as smoke from a wildfire or dust from abnormally high winds. States "flag" data for those days that they believe to be impacted by exceptional events. Such flagged days if concurred with by EPA, may be given special consideration in the compliance calculations.

The Exceptional Event Rule... formalizes the procedures ... The agencies submitting the flagged data are required to provide appropriate justification for the exceptional event flags.

The main scientific, technical challenge arises from the fact that many different source types contribute to PM2.5 concentrations. Some sources are anthropogenic, others are natural; some are located nearby, others can be located far away. Emissions from natural and 'extra-jurisdictional' sources, such as biomass fires and windblown dust or intercontinental pollution transport can contribute to severe episodic PM events, i.e. short-term concentration spikes. However, accounting for the contributions of these extra jurisdictional events in the implementation of the NAAQS is still under development.

Real-time continuous PM monitoring provides the record for short term event detection. Time-integrated and less frequent speciated PM samples provide the chemical signatures for specific aerosol types, such as smoke or dust. Satellite images delineate both the synoptic-scale as well as fine-scale features of PM events under cloudfree conditions. The full integration of these diverse PM data arising from a variety of measurements is still a major challenge for the data analyst. Air quality models that assimilate the various observations could serve as effective data integration platform. Unfortunately, the science and technology of such data assimilation is not yet available for the modeling and data analysis communities.

Flagging procedure has to be in accordance with section 40 CFR 50.14 (c)(3)(iii) of the EE rule. Preparing and evaluating the evidence for flagged data is a technically challenging task both for the State and the Regulatory offices. It requires:

  • Access to a diverse array of data sources illustrating various aspects of the exceptional event
  • Integration of the heterogeneous data sources, frequently incomplete and incompatible
  • Demanding data analysis and to establish "clear causal relationship" between the EE and the exceedance
  • Finally, the Rule requires a demonstration that the exceedance would not have occurred but for the presence of the EE.

The above requirements place high demand on the resources and skills of the analysts at the State, Region and Federal level. Many State and Regional AQ management offices lack the means for detecting, flagging and documenting exceptional events. Furthermore, the EE Rule is intentionally vague on the types of evidence and analyzes. As a consequence, the submissions are highly variable; some are very detailed and technical while others are brief and descriptive, which makes evaluation difficult and uneven.

Fortunately, there are now outstanding opportunities to develop executable, credible and reasonably simple methods for PM2.5 Exceptional Event analysis. In the past, the EPA evaluation of the State-provided data did not benefit from tools and sources of information which are now available.


The purpose of the Excepitonal Event DSS (EE DSS) for the preparation of technical documantation and supporting information for exceptional event data claims. The EE flags and the flag justification reports are prepared by the individual States, the primary users of the DSS are the States. However, since the EE flag claims are evaluated by Regional and Federal EPA offices, they also represent major user groups.

A: Event Description

In the first step it is established whether a site is in potential violation of the PM2.5 standard; is the concentration > 35 ug/m3? Only samples that are in non-compliance are qualified for EE status flag. Next, qualitative or quantitative evidence is gathered and presented showing that the event could have been caused by a source that is not reasonably controllable or preventable

B: Clear Causal Relationship between the Data and the Event

The third, main analysis step, provides key quantitative information for demonstrating a clear causal relationship between the measured exceedance value and the exceptional event.

C: The Event is in Excess of the "Normal" Values

Next, the sample is evaluated whether the measured high value is in excess of the normal, historical values. If not, the sample is not exceptional.

D: The Exceedance or Violation would not Occur, But For the Exceptional Event

Finally, the contribution of the exceptional source to the sample is compared to 'normal' anthropogenic sources. Only samples where the exceedances occur but for the contribution of the exceptional source qualify for EE flag.


  • General Goal and Framework needs to satisfy EE Rule
  • Methods of EE flagging can be developed based on the EE Rule and constrained by the available data/analysis resources
  • EE DSS consists of:


    • EE Flagging template - lays out sequence and possible lines of evidence
    • Tools (based on template) that help preparing flags (States), approving (EPA Regions), deciding (Federal EPA)

The DSS needs to be robust and up-to-date, continuously or in batch mode. Need to request to EPA to expose the FRM PM2.5 and Ozone data, say every 3 months, after the sampling

Members of the 'Core' network need to agree to provide robust service of data and tools.

Architecture

The design philosophy is of fan in-fan out. Any data is applicable to multiple benefit areas. Any benefit area needs multiple data.

Primary Decision-Support Systems

  • DataFed - Husar - Exceptional Events. Fan in: 50 States -> 10 EPA Regions -> 1 Federal EPA. Each transmits different pieces of information and we need to determine those pieces.

Exceptional Events are distributed in space, need a wide variety of data and include a variety of people therefore they are good candidates for the modern decision-support systems. Because fan in - fan out data flow architecture is so broad it can help other decision support application areas.

Many data, many analyses, many participants

Other Decision-Support Systems

Same fan in - fan out data flow architecture can be used for different decision-support systems.

  • VIEWS - Brett/Shawn - Regional Haze
  • BlueSky - Sean - Smoke
  • BAMS - McHenry - Air Quality Forecasting for the public
  • HTAP - Keating - Hemispheric Transport Policy

Information Sources

Generic Processing Routines and Tools

Application to Other DSS's

From NRA

As the main body of the proposal, this section should cover the following material:

  • Objectives of the proposed activity and relevance to NASA’s Strategic Goals and Outcomes given in Table 1 in the Summary of Solicitation of this NRA;
    • Strategic Subgoal 3A: Study planet Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs. - 3A.7 Expand and accelerate the realization of societal benefits from Earth system science.
  • Methodology to be employed, including discussion of the innovative aspects and rationale for NASA Earth research results to be integrated;
  • Systematic approach to integrate Earth science results into the decision-making activity (existing or new) and to develop and test the integrated system and address integration problems (technical, computational, organizational, etc.);
  • Approach to quantify improvements in the system performance, including characterization of risk and uncertainties;
  • Approach to quantify (or quantitatively estimate) the socioeconomic value and benefits from the resulting improvements in decision-making;
  • Challenges and risks affecting project success (technical, policy, operations, management, etc.) and the approach to address the challenges and risks; and
  • Relevant tables/figures that demonstrate key points of the proposal.

Proposals seeking to create a new decision-making activity should describe the tool, system, assessment, etc. in detail, including the decision analysis, factors, unique roles for Earth science research results, and other pertinent information.

From NASA Proposer Guidebook - Technical/Science/Management Section

[Ref.: Appendix B, Parts (c)(4), (c)(5), and in-part (c)(6)] As the main body of the proposal, this section must cover the following topics in the order given, all within the specified page limit. Unless specified otherwise in the NRA, the limit is 15 pages using the default values given in Section 2.3.1:

  • The objectives and expected significance of the proposed research, especially as related to the objectives given in the NRA;
  • The technical approach and methodology to be employed in conducting the proposed research, including a description of any hardware proposed to be built in order to carry out the research, as well as any special facilities of the proposing organization(s) and/or capabilities of the Proposer(s) that would be used for carrying out the work. (Note: ref. also Section 2.3.10(a) concerning the description of critical existing equipment needed for carrying out the proposed research and the Instructions for the Budget Justification in Section 2.3.10 for further discussion of costing details needed for proposals involving significant hardware, software, and/or ground systems development, and, as may be allowed by an NRA, proposals for flight instruments);
  • The perceived impact of the proposed work to the state of knowledge in the field and, if the proposal is offered as a direct successor to an existing NASA award, how the proposed work is expected to build on and otherwise extend previous accomplishments supported by NASA;
  • The relevance of the proposed work to past, present, and/or future NASA programs and interests or to the specific objectives given in the NRA;
  • To facilitate data sharing where appropriate, as part of their technical proposal, the Proposer shall provide a data-sharing plan and shall provide evidence (if any) of any past data-sharing practices.

The Scientific/Technical/Management Section may contain illustrations and figures that amplify and demonstrate key points of the proposal (including milestone schedules, as appropriate). However, they must be of an easily viewed size and have self-contained captions that do not contain critical information not provided elsewhere in the proposal.

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