Editing NASA ROSES08: Regulatory AQ Applications Proposal- Technical Approach

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==== B: Clear Causal Relationship between the Data and the Event ====
 
==== B: Clear Causal Relationship between the Data and the Event ====
The purpose of this component is to demonstrate that there is a clear causal relationship between the measurement under consideration and the event that is claimed to have affected the air quality in the area. The main scientific, technical challenge arises from the requirements of this clause B: Establishing a clear causal relationship. For PM pollution, for example, the fact that many different source types contribute to PM2.5 concentrations. Some sources are anthropogenic, others are natural; some are located nearby, others can be located far away. Emissions from natural and 'extra-jurisdictional' sources, such as biomass fires and windblown dust or intercontinental pollution transport can contribute to severe episodic PM events, i.e. short-term concentration spikes. However, accounting for the contributions of these extra jurisdictional events in the implementation of the NAAQS is still under development.
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The purpose of this component is to demonstrate that there is a clear causal relationship between the measurement under consideration and the event that is claimed to have affected the air quality in the area.  
  
 
'''Approach:''' The evidence includes (1) backtrajectory analysis to establish whether the air masses associated with the exceedance  pass through the source region of the  exceptional source. (2) Speciated aerosol data showing unusual chemical composition, e.g. organics for smoke, soil components for wind-blown dust, and potassium for July 4th. (3) Forward model simulations can also indicate a causal relationship. (4) Temporal signatures (spikes) may also yield additional evidence. While none of the evidence provides proof, the combination of evidence from multiple independent perspectives can provide sufficient weight for decision making. Hence, the purpose of this report section and these tools is to illustrate the multiple lines of evidence and how to combine these for making a strong argument.The selection of datasets and tools as well as the presentation of the evidence is in the hands of the analysts.  
 
'''Approach:''' The evidence includes (1) backtrajectory analysis to establish whether the air masses associated with the exceedance  pass through the source region of the  exceptional source. (2) Speciated aerosol data showing unusual chemical composition, e.g. organics for smoke, soil components for wind-blown dust, and potassium for July 4th. (3) Forward model simulations can also indicate a causal relationship. (4) Temporal signatures (spikes) may also yield additional evidence. While none of the evidence provides proof, the combination of evidence from multiple independent perspectives can provide sufficient weight for decision making. Hence, the purpose of this report section and these tools is to illustrate the multiple lines of evidence and how to combine these for making a strong argument.The selection of datasets and tools as well as the presentation of the evidence is in the hands of the analysts.  

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